In a world filled with uncertainty, the question of “what’s the next move?” hangs heavy in the air. On the international stage, Israel finds itself at a crossroads, currently on stand-by with its next move regarding a ground war in Gaza. China and Russia have much to say about their moves to advance their domestic agendas and have also now chimed in about the war in Gaza. Simultaneously, the United States is dealing with its own unrest and eagerly awaits the Federal Reserve’s next move as it gears up for its FOMC meeting on November 1.
The current situation in Gaza is by far the most harrowing in years. Israel, as it often does, faces biased global scrutiny regarding its military efforts in the region. We clearly see how the war in Israel is being fought with rockets and missiles, but also very much in the news and on social media. Unfortunately, we are now in a world where there are often several fronts to contend with, including political maneuvering, global elite agendas, and the media.
Back on American soil, the Federal Reserve’s next move with interest rates is a topic of widespread speculation and concern. The central bank has aggressively raised interest rates to combat rising inflation and has projected another 25-50bps increase in 2023. However, I don’t see that happening with the U.S. economy exhibiting signs of uncertainty and potential stagnation. Interest rates have skyrocketed over the past few months, and credit card debt has soared. Everyone is feeling choked and hoping for a reprieve.
The 10-year UST, often used as a safe haven for market players when there is turmoil and uncertainty, has spiked over 30 basis points since the onset of the war in Gaza. The tension in the market is having ripple effects throughout the world economies. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that this is ‘the most dangerous time’ for the world in decades.
Beyond the housing market, the next move in the economy is a source of concern for many. Signs of weakening employment have begun to surface, with job growth slowing in some sectors. While the labor market has shown resilience throughout the pandemic, uncertainty about the future is causing businesses to pause their hiring plans.
Meanwhile, the accumulation of national debt continues to be a pressing issue. The U.S. national debt is climbing, which has far-reaching consequences for the country’s fiscal health, and another threat of a government shutdown is brewing. As the economy faces challenges, the government’s reliance on borrowing to fund various initiatives, programs, and wars raises questions about sustainability and the long-term impact on its credit rating.
The theme of “the next move” extends far beyond the realm of international conflicts or central bank decisions. The path forward is uncertain, but one thing is clear: our collective decisions in these pivotal moments will profoundly shape our future. We hope and pray that wisdom and prudence will guide these crucial next moves. May Hashem protect all of His nation.
Shmuel Shayowitz (NMLS#19871) is President and Chief Lending Officer at Approved Funding, a privately held local mortgage banker and direct lender. Approved Funding is a mortgage company offering competitive interest rates as well as specialty niche programs on all types of Residential and Commercial properties. Shmuel has over 20 years of industry experience, including licenses and certifications as a certified mortgage underwriter, residential review appraiser, licensed real estate agent, and direct FHA specialized underwriter. He can be reached via email at Shmuel@approvedfunding.com.
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