How Politics is Shaping Mortgage Rates and the Housing Market

A Rabbi, a Hindu Priest, and a Politician went hiking. Night fell, and they were exhausted. The hotel on the map was nowhere to be seen. They knocked on the door of a farm and asked if they could spend the night. The farmer said, “Of course, but I only have a small room with two beds. One of you will have to sleep in the barn.”

The Hindu Priest said, “I need no material comforts. I will gladly take the barn.” The Rabbi and the Politician were settling in when they heard a knock on the door. They opened it to find the Hindu priest standing there. “So sorry, my friends, but there is a cow in the barn, and I cannot sleep beside such a holy animal.” The Rabbi said, “No problem, my brother. I’ll take the barn. The Hindu Priest and the Politician were settling in when they heard a knock on the door. They opened it to find the Rabbi standing there. “So sorry, my friends, but there’s a pig in the barn, and I can’t sleep beside such a filthy animal.”

The Politician said, “OK, let it be remembered that I sacrificed my comfort for the greater good.” The Rabbi and the Hindu Priest were settling in when they heard a knock on the door. They opened it to find the pig and the cow standing there.

Everyone loves a good political jab – especially when so many of our current political officials have much to scrutinize and criticize. The highly anticipated presidential showdown between President Biden and President Trump brought much focus on the perils of both parties. In the aftermath of the debate, investors expressed concerns about Joe Biden’s apparent lack of clarity and energy, which heightened uncertainties regarding his ability to lead the economy effectively.

The debate’s outcome triggered a wave of concern among Democrats, with many questioning Biden’s viability as the nominee. This sentiment will likely impact the campaign dynamics leading up to the election, with potential calls for Biden to step down growing louder within his party. Months ago, I wrote about how I did not expect Joe Biden to be the Democratic nominee in November. We are now starting to see this play out.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the intersection of politics and economics becomes increasingly significant, particularly for the mortgage and housing markets. Historically, election years bring uncertainty, leading to rate fluctuations and indecision regarding decisions about shelter.

Assuming he doesn’t relinquish power – if President Biden wins re-election, we can expect a continuation of his current economic policies. Expect the Biden administration to continue providing financial assistance and distributing economic aid wherever possible. In contrast, a win for Donald Trump could herald a return to policies characterized by significant tax cuts and deregulation. Trump’s economic strategy aims to boost growth through increased consumer and business spending.

As we are beginning to see, the mere anticipation of the election outcome will influence market behavior. Investors, lenders, and consumers tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to temporary slowdowns in housing market activity. Political promises create a speculative environment where market participants adjust their strategies based on potential policy shifts. Uncertainty during an election year can lead to short-term volatility in short-term and long-term rates. In addition, lenders might adopt more conservative lending practices, tightening credit requirements in response to potential economic shifts. As a result, prospective homebuyers may delay their purchasing decisions and await clearer signals about the future economic landscape.

As voters and market participants navigate this period of uncertainty, the interplay between politics and economics will continue to be a defining feature of the financial landscape. Don’t hesitate to reach out to find out how the particulars of your circumstances might be impacted over the next 6-12 months.

Would You Rather: Would you rather invest all your savings in a high-risk, high-reward stock with the potential to double your money in a year but also the chance of losing it all, or place your savings in a low-risk, low-reward savings account that guarantees a modest 2% annual return? Please email or message me to let me know your choice! Please let me know if you have a good “Would you rather” question, and we will highlight your submission.

Shmuel Shayowitz (NMLS#19871) is President and Chief Lending Officer at Approved Funding, a privately held local mortgage banker and direct lender. Approved Funding is a mortgage company offering competitive interest rates as well as specialty niche programs on all types of Residential and Commercial properties. Shmuel has over 20 years of industry experience, including licenses and certifications as a certified mortgage underwriter, residential review appraiser, licensed real estate agent, and direct FHA specialized underwriter. He can be reached via email at Shmuel@approvedfunding.com.

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